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Advanced Data Analytics

Structured Products · Risk & Return Scenarios · Lombard Lending

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Franco Arda, Ph.D.

Franco Arda, Ph.D.

Data Analyst

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Goal:

Does the yield premium justify the barrier risk?.

Analytics:

Monte Carlo simulation of barrier breach probability under different volatility scenarios

Insight:

“If 12-month volatility rises to 70%, barrier touch probability increases to ~57%.
At 50% volatility, it falls to ~41%.”

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👉 Live demo (interactive URL)
Each analysis is a shareable URL, which enables deeper client conversations.

Goal:

What is gold’s risk-return profile under varying market conditions?

Analytics:

Monte Carlo simulation assessing volatility sensitivity and tail risk (VaR / CVaR).

Insight:

”At 40% volatility, the 12-month downside gold price scenario is ~$2,069.
Under lower volatility (~20%), it’s ~$3,313.”

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👉 Live demo (interactive URL)

Each analysis is a shareable URL, which enables deeper client conversations.

Goal:

What LTV level provides an optimal balance between financing and breach risk?

Analytics:

Monte Carlo (GBM) simulation mapping asset price paths to LTV breach probabilities

Insight:

“At 60% asset volatility, LTV breach probability is ~32% over 12 months.
At 70% volatility, breach risk approaches 40%.”

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👉 Live demo (interactive URL)

Each analysis is a shareable URL, which enables deeper client conversations.

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